Unrest and $100 oil loom over Saudi talks

>RIYADH/DUBAI (Reuters) - A tide of unrest that has swept the Middle East and stoked oil prices above $100 a barrel is likely to dominate talks in Saudi Arabia next week designed to narrow the gap between consumer nations and resource-holders. The nearly 100 countries invited to the International Energy Forum on Tuesday include all 12 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, led by Saudi Arabia.Not all are expected to attend, with the oil minister of Iran, OPEC's second biggest exporter after Saudi Arabia and holder of the group's rotating presidency, among those expected to stay away, sources have said.That means any OPEC discussion on the sidelines of the official agenda will be informal, although Saudi Arabia could still make a unilateral output pledge as it has done in the past to try to calm markets.The leading exporter, with around 4 million barrels per day (bpd) of spare capacity, has said it is always ready to supply extra oil in case of need and its output has been steadily increasing, although its exports have not.Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi, who will initiate the official proceedings with a speech on Tuesday, has not spoken publicly since the end of January when he said the market was well-supplied.Other ministers and officials in comments this month have seen no need for emergency action and noted the popular revolts that have spread across the region since the toppling of the Tunisian and Egyptian presidents have not disrupted supply."When the ministers meet in Saudi, I think all the market issues will be discussed, but for now there is no panic or worry," said Ramzi Salman, advisor to Qatar's oil minister.DEPUTY U.S. ENERGY SECRETARYThe world's biggest oil consumer the United States is sending its deputy energy secretary, rather than Energy Secretary Steven Chu, to Riyadh.A department of energy spokesman made a low-key statement, saying Deputy Energy Secretary Daniel Poneman will hold bilateral talks on "topics including the current state of conventional markets and efforts to foster the transition to a low-carbon energy future."Saudi's relationship with the United States is still crucial, but its ties with the world's second biggest oil user China are deepening.Analysts said that now Saudi has lost its big regional ally Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, the shift toward Asia, the energy market of the future, could accelerate."There is a loss of faith (among Saudis) in the U.S. leadership," said Simon Henderson, a Washington-based author of studies on Saudi Arabia.Some tension between the United States and Saudi Arabia has resulted from a U.S. desire to wean itself off imported oil.

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