Bearish bets on yuan near six-year high, weigh on other Asia EM currencies: Reuters poll

Pessimism on yuan CNY=CFXS was the highest since April 2010, according to the poll of 19 fund managers, currency traders and analysts conducted from Tuesday through Thursday.

Onshore yuan slumped to a near five-year low on Thursday after the People's Bank of China unexpectedly set its daily guidance rate at the lowest since March 2011.

A series of weak fixings by the PBOC in recent days have sown confusion in financial markets over whether China has changed its forex policy and sparked fears of a global currency war.

The yuan has already lost 1.5 percent against the U.S. dollar so far this year, after shedding 4.7 percent in 2015.

Offshore yuan CNH=D3 is at the weakest since offshore trading started in 2010, and is trading at much softer levels than onshore. [CNY/]

The PBOC's China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS) repeated on Thursday that there was no basis for the yuan's continuous depreciation, but fears that China will allow further weakness clearly weighed on the outlook for other emerging Asian currencies, the poll showed.

Short positions on the South Korean won KRW=KFTC likely swelled to the largest in almost five months, according to the survey, with North Korea's nuclear test on Wednesday adding to the downward pressure.

Bearish bets on the Taiwan dollar TWD=TP increased to the largest since late August last year. The island's currency on Wednesday settled at its weakest level to the U.S. dollar since the global financial crisis as the yuan's weakness accelerated demand for the greenback.

Short positions on the Singapore dollar SGD=D3 hit a three-month peak, while those on Indonesia's rupiah IDR=ID rose to the highest since early October on dollar demand from local companies.

Pessimism on the Malaysian ringgit MYR=MY and the Indian rupee INR=D2 grew to the largest since mid-November.

The poll is focused on what analysts and fund managers believe are the current market positions in nine Asian emerging market currencies: the Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee, Philippine peso PHP=PDSP, Malaysian ringgit and the Thai baht THB=TH.

The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3. A score of plus 3 indicates the market is significantly long U.S. dollars.

The figures include positions held through non-deliverable forwards (NDFs).

The survey findings ASIAPOSN are provided below (positions in U.S. dollar versus each currency):

DATE CNY KRW SGD IDR TWD INR MYR PHP THB

7-Jan 1.51 1.33 1.00 0.79 1.19 0.39 0.95 0.41 0.83

10-Dec 1.13 0.96 0.78 0.61 0.89 0.25 0.72 0.38 0.85

26-Nov 0.72 0.54 0.63 0.36 0.60 0.15 0.60 0.58 0.78

12-Nov 0.38 0.92 0.96 0.43 0.74 0.47 1.26 0.94 0.87

29-Oct 0.09 0.18 0.49 0.43 0.52 -0.09 0.94 0.43 0.71

15-Oct -0.08 0.03 0.13 0.15 0.34 -0.31 0.67 0.22 0.60

1-Oct 0.13 1.01 1.20 1.35 1.04 0.11 1.71 0.68 1.20

17-Sept 0.26 0.60 0.62 1.27 0.73 0.27 1.48 0.54 1.00

3-Sept 0.62 1.09 1.31 1.45 1.15 0.66 1.96 0.86 1.51

20-Aug 0.91 1.56 1.50 1.55 1.58 0.75 2.21 1.04 1.86

6-Aug -0.15 1.27 1.19 1.16 0.91 0.11 1.82 0.84 1.40

(Additional reporting by Shaloo Shrivastava in BENGALURU; Editing by Kim Coghill)