سفر جان کری به عربستان

جان کری، وزیر امورخارجه آمریکا، این هفته برای اطمینان خاطر ملک سلمان درباره این‌که هرگونه توافق هسته‌ای با ایران، به نفع عربستان سعودی خواهد بود به ریاض سفر می‌کند. عربستان بیم آن دارد که این توافق قدرت رقیبش در حمایت از منافع مسلمانان شیعه در منطقه را افزایش دهد.

برای باراک اوباما، متقاعد کردن عربستان سعودی در مورد توافق هسته‌ای مهم است، زیرا او به همکاری نزدیک ریاض و واشنگتن در مورد سیاست‌های منطقه‌ای و ایفای نقش اعتدالی این کشور در بازار نفت نیاز دارد.

مهمترین منتقدان تلاش‌های آمریکا برای دستیابی به توافق با ایران، اسرائیل و جمهوریخواهان کنگره هستند. اما عربستان سعودی هم نگران است که این توافق منجر به رسیدن پول و انرژی بیشتر به نایبان شیعه ایران در سوریه، عراق، لبنان و یمن شود و درگیری‌ها را شدت بخشد.

یکی از دیپلمات‌های خلیج فارس گفت: "سعودی‌ها می‌ترسند اوباما به هر قیمتی شده با ایران به توافق برسد، چون برای میراثی که از او بر جای می ماند مهم است و ایران با این توافق موقعیت خود را در منطقه تقویت کند."

جان کری روز دوشنبه در آغاز مذاکرات سه روزه در مونتروی سوئیس با محمدجواد ظریف وزیر امورخارجه ایران دیدار کرد تا بتوانند تا مهلت پایان ماه مارس به چارچوب توافق دست یابند. وی پس از آن به پادشاه جدید عربستان در مورد مذاکرات اطلاع‌رسانی می‌کند و در روزهای بعد با مقامات ارشد دیگر در خلیج‌فارس دیدار خواهد کرد تا آن‌ها را متقاعد کند، راه‌حل دیپلماتیک برای بحران طولانی‌مدت برنامه هسته‌ای ایران به نفع کشور آن‌ها نیز هست.

تحلیلگران می‌گویند، نگرانی عربستان در روزهای اخیر موجب شده تا اتحاد بین کشورهای سنی خاورمیانه افزایش یابد. یک مقام ارشد دولت اوباما گفت، آمریکا نیز در نگرانی‌های عربستان درباره نقش ایران در منطقه، خصوصا در سوریه و یمن و روابطش با حزب‌الله لبنان شریک است، اما افزود، آمریکا تعهد نظامی ویژه‌ای به متحدان خود در خلیج‌فارس دارد.

اعتماد عربستان به واشنگتن پس از منتشر شدن اخبار دیدارهای پنهانی مقامات ایران و آمریکا خدشه‌دار شد و هنوز در حال طی کردن روند بهبودی است. یک دیپلمات غربی می‌گوید: "آن‌ها خیلی خیلی در مورد شیوه پیشروی آمریکا نگران هستند. ریاض می‌ترسد یک موقعیت باخت-باخت برایش پیش بیاید؛ یا ایران به سلاح هسته‌ای دست یابد، یا از تحریم‌ها رها شود."

خبرهایی که از طریق ویکی‌لیکس فاش شد نشان می‌دهد، نگرانی عربستان در مورد دستیابی ایران به سلاح هسته‌ای به حدی بوده که یک‌بار ملک عبدالله از واشنگتن خواسته با حمله به ایران "سر مار را قطع کند."

اما حالا نفوذ ایران در کشورهای عربی، بخصوص حمایت از بشار اسد در سوریه، حمایت از شبه‌نظامیان شیعه در عراق و روابطش با حوثی‌های یمن، موجب نگرانی‌های بیشتری شده است.

یک مقام ارشد وزارت خارجه آمریکا به رویترز گفت: "جان کری خاطرنشان کرده که نگرانی‌های آن‌ها در باب امنیت منطقه را درک می‌کنیم، نگرانی‌هایی که ما هم در آن‌ها شریک هستیم."

تحلیلگران می‌گویند، در همین حال، ریاض سعی دارد اتحاد کشورهای سنی را علیه آن‌چه تهدید دوجانبه ایران و داعش می‌پندارد تقویت کند. ملک سلمان در هفته‌های اخیر با رهبران تمام همسایگان خود در خلیج‌فارس، پادشاه اردن و روسای جمهور مصر و ترکیه، دو کشور قدرتمند سنی در منطقه دیدار و گفتگو کرده است.

مصطفی علانی، یک تحلیلگر عراقی مسائل امنیتی که با وزارت کشور این پادشاهی ارتباط دارد می‌گوید: "درک ما این است که با امضای توافق، با ایران تهاجمی‌تری روبرو خواهیم بود. تمام محدودیت‌هایش برداشته خواهد شد و قوی‌تر می‌شود. این موضوعی است که نیاز به نوعی اتحاد دارد."

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3 مارس 2015